What the US midterms priced into European gas and power, what they did not, and where we see trades. Democrats won both chambers of Congress on 3 November, and the TTF curve fell about 4% the next day. From January the new Congress controls the money for the Iran war. It cannot refill Europe's storage this winter.
Twelve sections, including a dated catalyst calendar to September 2027 and four scenarios with our weights, priced against the forward curve. Built on Voltstack's live storage, LNG and Norway data and dated exchange settlements.
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Yes. As of 5 November 2026 Democrats held 54 Senate seats to 44, with Alaska and Mississippi uncalled, and NBC News had called 242 House seats for Democrats to 151 for Republicans, with 42 uncalled. Prediction markets had priced Democratic control of both chambers at about 72.5% to 74%. The new Congress sits from 3 January 2027.
ICE Endex TTF Dec-26 settled at €88.08/MWh on 4 November, down 3.84% on the day and €15.86 below its five-session high of €103.94. Most of that fall came before the result. Contracts from Dec-26 to Cal-29 lost about 4% on 4 November, and Brent fell 8.7% to $94.62 a barrel.
Not on its own before January, and not over a veto: an override needs two thirds of both chambers, which the result does not give. Its strongest tool is money, starting with the $67.1bn Pentagon supplemental the administration requested in June, part of it for the war.
Hardly. EU storage was 74.1% full on gas day 3 November, 15.8 points below the five-year average, and Germany was 60.6% full. Polymarket prices a US-Iran Hormuz agreement by 31 December at 35.5% but a return to normal traffic by then at 10.5%, and even a fast deal takes weeks to turn into cargoes at European terminals.
What the market has priced, what it has not, what the vote means for German power and EU carbon, four scenarios with our weights, three paper trade ideas with levels, costs and triggers, and a dated calendar of catalysts to September 2027. It is free with a company email address.
As of 5 November 2026, Voltstack is a browser-based analytics workspace that puts official European power, gas storage, LNG and REMIT data into dashboards and alerts for traders and analysts on European gas and power desks.
voltstack.energySeat counts are as reported on 5 November 2026 and may change as the last races are called.